Canada has recorded its first population decline since the COVID-19 pandemic, a shift Statistics Canada says is directly linked to tighter immigration policies introduced over the past year. The data marks a significant turning point after several years of rapid population growth driven largely by record levels of immigration and temporary residents.
According to StatCan’s latest estimates, the slowdown — and eventual decline — reflects reduced intake of temporary foreign workers, international students, and other short-term residents, alongside stricter eligibility rules and caps introduced by the federal government. Ottawa has repeatedly said the changes were necessary to ease pressure on housing, healthcare, and public infrastructure, particularly in major urban centres.
For much of the post-pandemic period, population growth helped fuel economic expansion and address labour shortages. However, it also intensified affordability challenges, with soaring rents, strained public services, and overcrowded transit systems. The government responded by recalibrating immigration targets, especially for temporary residents, aiming to better align population growth with capacity.
StatCan notes that while permanent resident admissions remain historically strong, the sharp drop in non-permanent residents has had an outsized impact on overall population numbers. Several provinces that had seen the fastest growth — including Ontario and British Columbia — reported the most noticeable slowdowns.
Economists say the population dip does not necessarily signal long-term decline, but rather a period of adjustment. Some warn that prolonged reductions could worsen labour shortages in sectors such as healthcare, construction, and hospitality, while others argue the pause provides breathing room for governments to catch up on housing and infrastructure supply.
Business groups have urged Ottawa to ensure immigration policies remain flexible and responsive to labour market needs. At the same time, housing advocates say the data validates concerns that population growth was outpacing Canada’s ability to provide affordable homes and services.
Federal officials maintain that immigration remains central to Canada’s economic future, stressing that the current approach is about balance, not retreat. StatCan is expected to release more detailed provincial and demographic breakdowns in the coming months, which will offer clearer insight into how the shift is reshaping Canada’s population landscape.